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Eastern Michigan Eagles +28.5 to cover against Penn State

September 28th, 2011 by admin

Coming this Saturday, College Football betting will be at its finest as the Penn State Nittany Lions (2-1) will be looking to take out their aggression on the Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-1). Penn State almost managed to lose a current 70 year winning streak over Temple but they were able to hold on due to aggressive play calling by Head Coach Joe Paterno. Kickoff is set for Saturday September 24th at Noon ET in Beaver Stadium on ESPN 2 and livestreaming on ESPN 3.

“Go for it !!!!”

The kicking game was failing Penn State as Temple held the lead for almost the entire game until two crucial calls on 4th down, where Penn State elected to go for it. Penn State capitalized on the opportunity and earned a 14-10 victory over the Owls which upset many of the college football picks out there by not covering the spread.

Most teams would’ve put the kicker out there at such short distances for an amateur to tie the game, but the call up from the coaching box (where Coach Paterno resides) instructed the assistant coach permission to go for it. This game is a microcosm of why Joe Paterno is still coaching and one of the all time greats.

“I don’t know what I’m going to do”

Those are exact quotes from coach Joe Paterno on what to do regarding the battle for the quarterback position. Paterno thinks that both QBs are equal in talent and it’s a virtual tossup.

Stats don’t always tell the story. If they did, Penn State would’ve lost against Temple. Statistically, Matthew McGloin would have to be the starter. McGloin had a disastrous 1 for 10 performance against Alabama. Other than that he has been very efficient and the superior quarterback. You go with the hot hand and McGloin was 13 of 19 for 124 yards against Temple while sophomore Rob Bolden was 9 of 17 for 92 yards and 1 INT. Bolden’s accuracy is just not there. For the season, Bolden (44.8%) is 26 for 58 for 273 yards and 2 INT.

Regardless of who gets the call, Penn State is in desperate need of scoring their first passing TD as we enter week number 4.

Receiving

Senior Derek Moye is more than a capable receiver who can get in the endzone and give Penn State that elusive 1st receiving TD. He caught 7 balls last week for 112 yard. Moye also leads the team in receiving with 14 receptions for 220 yards. The Penn State tandem of QB’s 2nd favorite target is junior Justin Brown. Brown has good size for a college receiver at 6 foot 3, 214 pounds. He has 10 receptions for 114 yards this season.

Overall both are good sized receivers that can matchup with opposing defenses. Moye has 15 career touchdowns. When the Nittany Lions decide on a number one quarterback, the question of “When will they score their 1st passing TD” will be put to rest.

Super sophomore runner

Silas Redd would fit that description. He leads Penn State with 50 rushes for 255 yards and 4 TD. He’s not going to offer anything via the passing game, but Redd is the go to guy. Look for Silas Redd to grind out his usual average yards per game against a fairly solid East Michigan defense. This should be a fairly low scoring game as both defenses are hovering around the top 25 in points allowed

“Run the ball down their throats”

Eastern Michigan will take this approach as they enter Saturday’s game with the 6th best running attack in the nation that averages a whopping 289.7 yards per game! This is a team that lives and dies by the run.

Including QB Gillett, the Eagles have 3 players with over 200 yards rushing and all of them average 6 yards a carry or more. This partially has to do with the level of difficulty in their opponent. Look for Javonti Greene (346 yards, 1 TD) and Dominique Sherrer (231 yards, 7.7 yards per carry, 2 TD) to be more pressed defensively as Eastern Michigan faces a stiffer level of competition. Penn State is a member of the Big Ten Conference and unless you’re Taylor Martinez, they don’t allow runners to average 7.7 yards per carry. In last week’s game, Michigan held the Eagles ground game in check to a point. Eastern Michigan still got 200 yards but it came in smaller increments. Something will give in this game. Will it be the Penn State Nittany Lions defense or the ferocious running attack of the Eastern Michigan Eagles? Stay tuned for the results.

Please note: Dominique Sherrer is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game

Junior quarterback Alex Gillett is part of the Eastern Michigan running attack. He’s 3rd in rushing with 211 yards and 1 TD. Gillett also takes to the air on rare occasions where he’s a near 50% thrower and averaging 68.3 yards passing per game. With a “run first” mentality, Gillett’s 3 touchdown passes as opposed to 2 interceptions is acceptable when the running accounts for almost all of the offense.

Pace of the game

Expect this game to be a fast tempo game with a lot of the work done on the ground. All 3 of these starting quarterbacks aren’t game changers. Although the Eagles defense looks good on paper, look for Penn State to get into some type of rhythm with the passing game. As Eastern Michigan play’s the superior teams like last week, they’re not as effective offensively and defensively.

The betting odds tell us that Penn State are a huge 28.5 point favorite and the total is 44.5.

Outcome of the game

Michigan broke in Eastern Michigan and now it is Penn State’s turn. I don’t think that Penn State will be as effective as the Wolverines due to the uncertainty of “who’s manning the ship”. The Eagles will run as we all know and it’s just a matter of how effective can the Penn State offense be? They’ll be effective enough to win the game but not to cover the 4 touchdown spread (Possibly, not even close). Make the intelligent decision and take Eastern Michigan.

Pick: Eastern Michigan +28.5

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans in Week 2

September 23rd, 2011 by admin

The Ravens made a statement in their season opener. Was it a mirage or can they continue the success against the Titans?

The line is beginning to move, but I like this at anything less than a touchdown. 

Last week

Baltimore likely goes down as one of the biggest surprises from week 1 of the 2011 NFL season.  They are a solid team, but great enough to plaster Pittsburgh off the field?  

A lot of people will look at their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and say that the 7 turnover differential inflated the perception of the Ravens this week.  Keep in mind that Baltimore were dominating that game before any of those turnovers and were well on their way to a convincing win without the gifts from Big Ben.  Give Baltimore’s questionable offensive line a lot of credit for giving Flacco more than enough time to find the open receivers. 

That said, I don’t think the Ravens are world-beaters and I still maintain that they won’t be a Super Bowl contender this year.  The good news for us is that none of that matters in week 2.  The Ravens have the benefit of traveling to Tennessee to take on one of the worst teams in the AFC South.  

Don’t pay much attention to the final score of the Titans/Jaguars game because it isn’t indicative of how things played out between the 20s.  Jacksonville had almost double the amount of plays and time of possession.  I said before the season started that I didn’t like what was going on in Tennessee and I’m not at all surprised that they struggled out of the gate.  

Matt Hasselbeck is still a long way from mastering this new system and his timing with his receivers was off all day.  Chris Johnson didn’t look like the multi-million dollar man as he is still getting up to speed on the blocking schemes and reading the holes.  The O-line didn’t block well either and the tight ends made numerous errors as well.  Tennessee couldn’t sustain drives, get off the field, or stop the run.  The Jags piled up 153 rushing yards on 47 carries.  Adding insult to injury, the Titans couldn’t create any pressure on McCown when they sent 5 or more rushers. Do you think they miss Jim Washburn and Jason Babin?

In other words, the Titans were absolute garbage in a game that was ripe for the picking.  Munchak is telling his players not to panic and that they didn’t really lose the physical battle, but the eye in the sky never lies.

Game time

Look for Rice to blow through holes on Sunday thanks to free agent pickups Vonte Leach and Bryant McKinnie.  Time of possession will be another big factor as Tennessee struggle to get points from long drives.  In fact, points from long drives have become more important than ever thanks to the new kickoff rule.  You can only get fluky big plays from Kenny Britt so many times and it isn’t very often that Ed Reed is healthy.  Sprinkle in a little bit of Ngata and Suggs and you have a full blown crisis for Matt Hasselbeck.  Some might say that he caught some breaks given the injuries that Baltimore suffered in the secondary, but the Ravens boast enviable depth at the cornerback position. 

In NFL picks, this play has more to do with fading the Titans than it has to do with an endorsement of Baltimore, but it doesn’t hurt that Harbaugh has his troops on the same page to start the year. It’s going to be a long afternoon for Munchak and company so look to the Ravens on the NFL odds board. 

Prediction: Bank BAL -6.

Big Ben banged up

September 18th, 2011 by novafantasysports

Update: Ben Roethlisberger limped off the field with a lower leg injury late in the second quarter of Sunday’s game against the Seahawks. Big Ben missed two plays before returning to action.  Ben looks to rebound after being banged up once again.

Bears Bennett injured

September 18th, 2011 by novafantasysports

Update: Earl Bennett suffered a chest injury in the first quarter Sunday and is questionable to return. Bennett was speared in the ribs by Saints defender Roman Harper after hauling in a nine-yard over-the-middle pass. 

Chiefs lose Charles

September 18th, 2011 by novafantasysports

Update: Jamaal Charles was forced from Sunday's game against the Lions with a left knee injury.  He appeared to be in a great deal of pain as he was carted to the locker room. His return is officially questionable.

Roy Williams inactive

September 18th, 2011 by novafantasysports

Update: Roy Williams (groin) is inactive for Week 2 against the Saints.  Johnny Knox will start opposite Devin Hester in Williams' absence.


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